The Michael Jackson biopic Michael has created a massive divide between critics and audiences, with a glaring gap in their scores. Professional reviewers have been lukewarm at best, but strong audience enthusiasm is what will ultimately make or break the film—and right now, it looks set to deliver a historic smash hit.
Michael is already exceeding early expectations by a wide margin. It pulled in a massive $12.6 million in Thursday night domestic previews—the biggest of 2026 so far. That figure matches Project Hail Mary and surpasses previews for major releases like Oppenheimer and Dune: Part Two.
On Friday alone, the film earned approximately $39.5–40 million domestically. This points to a projected opening weekend of $88–100 million in North America, comfortably beating earlier forecasts that topped out around $70 million. With its wide global rollout, the ~$200 million-budgeted film is now on track for a staggering $200 million+ worldwide opening weekend.
These numbers would not only mark the biggest debut ever for a music biopic (surpassing Straight Outta Compton), but also rank among the strongest openings of the year.
The audience love is undeniable: Michael boasts a stellar 96% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes (one of the highest ever for any biopic), along with an A- CinemaScore. That overwhelming fan support appears to be drowning out the critics’ more mixed reception, proving once again that when it comes to the box office, audience turnout is king.
This weekend’s domestic haul would shatter the previous record for a music biopic by a wide margin. Straight Outta Compton (2015) opened to $60.2 million domestically — the former benchmark — followed by Bohemian Rhapsody (2018) with $51 million. Even Elvis (2022), which enjoyed near-perfect audience scores similar to Michael, managed only $31.2 million in its opening weekend.
Michael is now on track to nearly double Straight Outta Compton’s record and more than triple Elvis’ debut, cementing its place as the biggest music biopic opening of all time.
Looking further ahead, if Michael delivers a global opening weekend around $200 million, it will easily surpass Elvis ($288.7 million lifetime worldwide) to become the second-highest-grossing music biopic of all time. Bohemian Rhapsody remains the undisputed champion at $910.8 million—a staggering $600+ million ahead—making that total a much tougher mountain to climb. Still, with these explosive early numbers and the intense audience passion on display, calling a billion-dollar run “impossible” feels premature. At this pace, it’s starting to look not just possible, but increasingly probable.
The film has also sparked a full-blown “war on critics.” With a critic score hovering around 38-40% on Rotten Tomatoes, many fans and commentators have openly declared the professional reviews “wrong.” Meanwhile, the audience score continues to climb as more verified reviews pour in, now sitting at a remarkable 96-97%—one of the highest ever recorded for any biopic. This critic-audience split may be the widest in the genre’s history, underscoring a clear divide: professional reviewers are lukewarm, but moviegoers are embracing Michael with open arms.
In a rare move for the biopic genre—where multiple standalone films about the same figure are far more common than sequels—there is already genuine buzz about a potential follow-up to Michael. The sequel would reportedly focus on the later, more controversial chapters of Michael Jackson’s life, with Jaafar Jackson expected to return in the lead role. While nothing has been officially announced, Lionsgate and the creative team have hinted they are prepared to move forward if audience demand remains this strong. For now, all eyes are on the final weekend totals to see just how far this momentum can carry.
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